Fellow Hypergrowth Investors,
For months, crypto investors have been stuck in the interhalving dead zone. And the right move was to stay on the sidelines until the market handed us real evidence that the next boom cycle is starting to turn.
This week, for the first time since this dead zone began, we got some of that evidence.
On Wednesday, President Trump hosted crypto executives at the White House and said his administration is “considering” sizable purchases of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) and other digital assets, while again calling on Congress to pass “a fair version” of the CLARITY Act.
Bitcoin ripped through $69,000 that day.
But the more precise driver, per the same day’s reporting, was Treasury Secretary Bessent doubling the size of long-term bond buybacks, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.
That move is credited with triggering roughly $3 billion in short-position liquidations, which did as much or more to fuel the move as the crypto headlines did. The summit gave the rally a story while the short squeeze gave it its size.
The rally continued Thursday, with Bitcoin pushing toward $75,000. The same day, the CFTC’s newly formed Innovation Advisory Committee held its first meeting — 35 members, heavily weighted toward industry, with the CEOs of Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), Polymarket, and Kalshi in the room.
Trump also said CFTC Chair Selig is “working very hard” to bring the offshore derivatives platform Hyperliquid onshore under a compliant framework, sending its token up double digits on the remark.
The 200-day Reclaim Is the Signal That Matters
On Wednesday, Bitcoin closed back above its 200-day moving average for the first time since the death cross that formed on Nov. 16, 2025:
We went back through Bitcoin’s entire trading history and found exactly three prior instances of this specific setup: six-plus months spent below a still-declining 200-day average, followed by a reclaim.
All three — 2015, 2019, and 2023 — went on to mark major, multi-year cycle lows. Not short-lived bounces. Genuine trend reversals.
The honest caveats matter as much as the headline: this is a sample of three. Two of the three whipsawed back below the average before the real move started — 2015 gave back another 24% first.
And this specific breakout’s proximate cause, a short squeeze, is exactly the kind of fuel that powered the near-term fakeouts in the two cycles that chopped before continuing.
It’s a small, noisy sample. Still, historically, it’s clearly bullish.
The Halving-cycle Chart
Here’s what I said back in February:
It can't be this simple, can't it?
Bitcoin is just tracking the same price pattern it followed after the 2020 halving… and after the 2016 halving…
The arguments were that because of Trump, ETFs, institutional money, etc that the 2024 halving cycle would play out… pic.twitter.com/6MTcYhW5hi
— Being Exponential | Luke Lango (@exponentialluke)
February 3, 2026
That Bitcoin halving-cycle chart overlays the last three Bitcoin halving cycles, each normalized to its own starting point and plotted on a log scale.
The white line is our current cycle. The blue line is the 2019–2023 cycle. The orange line is the 2015–2019 cycle. It marks the April 19, 2024 halving, a projected cycle top around October 6, 2025, and a projected cycle bottom around Oct. 18, 2026.
Two things jump out. First, this cycle has tracked well below the trajectories of the prior two on a normalized basis — consistent with a maturing, multi-trillion-dollar asset that no longer puts up the same percentage moves it did as a small-cap curiosity.
Second, in both prior cycles, the bottom formed roughly a year after the top, followed by a strong recovery the following year.
Map that pattern onto today, and you land on a projected bottom window around mid-to-late October 2026, with a recovery into 2027.
I want to be precise about what this chart is and isn’t. It’s a pattern drawn from a small handful of completed cycles — a rough signpost, not a guarantee. But paired with this week’s 200-day reclaim, it’s a second, independent line of evidence pointing in the same direction: the worst of the dead zone may be closer to its end than its middle.
What We’re Not Calling a Signal Yet
Trump’s purchase comments are not new information. “Considering sizable purchases” is the same mechanism-free language the administration has used since the March 2025 Strategic Bitcoin Reserve executive order — no budget authorization, no dollar figure, no timeline, no path around the budget-neutral constraint that’s boxed in every version of this idea so far.
We flagged nearly identical language after an earlier summit weeks ago and called the pattern “buy the rumor, sell the fact.” Nothing about the substance has changed since — only the fact that price also moved this time, which isn’t a reason to upgrade rhetoric to a confirmed signal.
The CLARITY Act is also unchanged: the Senate’s cloture vote is still set for Sept. 15, still needs 60 votes, and is still reported as roughly six Democratic votes short.
So we’re counting one confirmed signal this week: a real technical reclaim. But there are two tracks left to climb before we’d call this confirmed rather than encouraging:
Technical: a successful retest and hold of the 200-day average, currently around $69,000 and still declining — if price comes back into that zone and holds instead of failing back below it, that’s confirmation the reclaim was structural, not squeeze-driven. Above that, a reclaim of $85,000, roughly the November–December 2025 support cluster ($84,684–$86,537) that broke down in January. And above that, $82,200 — the May 2026 high, which sits almost exactly at the 50-week moving average (roughly $81,700–$82,000). That’s the cleaner, historically stronger version of this same signal, and the level we’ve flagged as the all-clear for months.
Fundamental: CLARITY Act passage. And an actual confirmed government purchase mechanism — a budget line, a dollar figure, a timeline — not a remark at a podium.
We’ve talked before about opportunistic buying in the $55,000–$58,000 range as valuation got attractive. That was always a side observation, not the core thesis.
The core thesis has always been: stay on the sidelines until the market gives us real evidence the dead zone is ending. This week, for the first time, it did.
That said, we’re not popping champagne.
There’s a long ladder of confirmation still ahead, and history says this exact setup has chopped before it worked two times out of three. But for the first time in months, this isn’t just a message to wait.
One More Thing Before You Go
Bitcoin’s dead zone thawing is one of the biggest stories I’m tracking right now. But it isn’t the only civilization-scale wealth shift I’ve got my eye on.
There’s another one brewing… and it doesn’t involve a single token or a single halving cycle.
It involves Elon Musk.
I believe Musk is laying the groundwork for what could become the biggest corporate merger in history: a combination of Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) into a single entity I’m calling “XPANSE.”
Musk’s own biographer, top Wall Street analysts, and venture capital veterans have all suggested some version of this could be coming — and I believe it could dwarf what PayPal, Tesla, and SpaceX have already done for early investors.
Just like I try to do with crypto cycles, I’ve identified three specific, under-the-radar stocks I believe are positioned to benefit if this thesis plays out, well before Wall Street catches on.
I’ve put together a full briefing on it — including the name and ticker of a free pick — and I’d like to send it your way, with a risk-free trial to my daily research service, Innovation Investor.
Click here to see the full XPANSE briefing before the market catches on.
Whether it’s Bitcoin’s halving cycle or Elon’s next potential masterstroke, the game is the same: try to get positioned before the crowd figures out what’s happening. That’s what I’m here for.
Stay patient. Stay disciplined. Better days are ahead.
The post The First Crack in the Ice: Why Crypto Winter May Finally Be Thawing appeared first on InvestorPlace.
